CREDIBILITY, MACROECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS AND MARKOV REGIME SWITCHES IN THE EMS

The main objective of this paper is to use the Markov regime‐switching modelling framework to describe and analyse the credibility of a number of countries participating in the European Monetary System during 1980–1998. Our credibility indicator, based on Hughes Hallet et al.'s (1997) methodology, is subject to discrete regime shifts and is made dependent on macroeconomic fundamentals. We carry out extensive testing to assess the specification of the Markov regime‐switching model and the potential existence of permanent breaks. A contribution of our paper is the specification of a multivariate Markov switching model that allows us to examine whether macroeconomic variables have asymmetric effects on credibility. Another contribution is the specification of a regime‐switching model with time‐varying transition probabilities, which enables us to determine whether changes in macroeconomic variables can trigger switches between the low and high credibility regimes. We find strong evidence of regime switching behaviour in all countries. Both the level of credibility and the transition probabilities display an asymmetric response to changes in macroeconomic variables, with the stance of fiscal policy exerting the most systematic influence in all countries.     

东部地区农业结构变动与政策变量之间的相关性研究

本文通过农民收入变量、农民受教育程度、农村人均固定资产投资额、政府用于农村人均文教娱乐用品及服务支出和政府用于农村财政支出等政策变量与东部地区农业结构变动的相关性分析,再根据未来若干年我国及东部地区农业政策变化趋势,从而预测未来我国东部地区农业结构的变化趋势。     

中国税收流失规模估测

无论地下经济还是公开经济都存在税收流失问题.本文采用一定的方法分别对我国1982-2002年间地下经济和公开经济的税收流失规模进行了估测.从税收流失的规模角度看,我国税收的汲取能力比较弱,蕴涵着很大的税收风险.减少税收流失应作为税制改革的重要目标.     

排污权交易的非现实性和征收污染环境税的必要性

从财政的角度上来说,改革排污收费制度呼声最高的方案有两个,一是开征污染环境税,二是进行排污权的交易。但是,笔者认为现在进行排污权的交易时机还不成熟,而及时开征污染环境税则是一个可行的方案。     

Politico-economic consequences of rising wage inequality

This paper uses a dynamic political economy model to evaluate whether the observed rise in wage inequality and decrease in median to mean wages can explain some portion of the relative increase in transfers to low earnings quintiles and relative increase in effective tax rates for high earnings quintiles in the U.S. over the past several decades. Specifically, we assume that households have uninsurable idiosyncratic labor efficiency shocks and consider policy choices by a median voter which are required to be consistent with a sequential equilibrium. We choose the transition matrix to match observed mobility in wages between 1978 and 1979 in the panel study of income dynamics (PSID) data set and then evaluate the response of social insurance policies to a new transition matrix that matches the observed mobility in wages between 1995 and 1996 and is consistent with the rise in wage inequality and the decrease in median to mean wages between 1979 and 1996. We deal with the problem that policy outcomes affect the evolution of the wealth distribution (and hence prices) by approximating the distribution by a small set of moments. We contrast these numbers with those from a sequential utilitarian mechanism, as well as mechanisms with commitment.     

产业升级、贸易政策与经济转型

产业升级是经济转型的内驱动力，贸易政策对于产业升级具有制约作用，是经济转型的外驱力量。政府通过设计合理的激励机制，将两种力量聚合，积极推动经济转型，从而缩短经济转型的时间进程。     

涉外企业税务审计中的几个问题

《涉外税务审计规程》对涉外税务审计工作的顺利开展发挥了重要作用,但也存在一些问题。为此,根据新时期的新要求,要充分运用电算化审计技术,适当调整和补充底稿范本,合理选择审计程序,不断推进涉外企业税务审计工作的科学化、规范化和程序化。     

公共服务民营化的目标原则与政策供给

我国公共服务民营化目前还处在起步和探索阶段,推进其健康发展就要制定明确的目标、原则与相应的政策支持来进行战略布局,使公共服务民营化在政府规制的模式下,以准市场制度环境蓬勃发展,使公共服务民营化的推进具有制度安排的路径。     

个人所得税扣除政策绩效的评价与测度

本文基于技术经济学项目评价指标的广泛适用性,对个人所得税扣除政策的成本与收益进行了评价与测度.这种探索有助于深化个人所得税制的研究.     

公允价值的引入对投资性房地产核算的税务影响

新会计准则对企业的税务影响主要是相对影响,着重表现在对企业所得税费用的影响,但也有绝对影响,即对应纳所得税额的影响。本文结合实例分析新会计准则在投资性房地产等业务处理上适度引入"公允价值"作为会计核算计量模式后的税务影响。